The college football regular season is down to its embers, and the levels below the FCS already are headed into the postseason — the FCS will announce its bracket Nov. 19; the Division II, III playoffs open this weekend.
There’s still plenty left to be decided on the field. But the 2024 NFL Draft also continues to creep ever closer. What do our draft experts think about this weekend’s key storylines?
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Saturday (vs. UCLA) could be Caleb Williams’ final college game. Has he done enough to lock up QB1 or will Drake Maye push him through April?
Dane Brugler: Like I’ve said since the summer, I don’t expect there to be a consensus QB1 from team to team in this draft. Some will prefer Caleb Williams; others will prefer Drake Maye. Both of these quarterbacks have the talent and potential to grow into top-10 quarterbacks in the NFL.
That said, this game will be an important tape for Williams’ evaluation, because UCLA has a top-10 defense. The only other top-tier defense USC faced this season was Notre Dame, and obviously that was the worst game of Williams’ tenure with the Trojans. This season hasn’t gone according to plan for USC or Williams, but putting a strong performance on tape against Laiatu Latu and this aggressive Bruins defense would be a great way to cap a brilliant college career.
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Nick Baumgardner: The only certainty at the moment is that Maye and Williams, in some order, are QB1 and QB2. As Dane has noted, that order will depend on the team. I think both are capable of entering a bad situation next year and making it better pretty quickly, though. That’s not something we always say about the top QB in the draft. If we’re being honest, it’s not something we’ve said about a guy since at least Trevor Lawrence.
For me, Maye’s ability to keep a bad North Carolina team competitive has been more impressive than anything we’ve seen from Williams this year. Will it matter to the team picking No. 1? No idea.
Diante Lee: Williams has had to bear the weight of every flaw in USC’s football program. His failings probably have received unfair amplification because he’s had a national audience — and he’s still produced at a high clip against a hell of a schedule. But the ball security and pocket management are genuine flaws that could cost him games in the NFL.
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Maye has held steady, stayed efficient and showcased a level of consistency on a week-to-week basis — a combination that will be a major draw for rebuilding NFL teams. In terms of talent alone, both of these quarterbacks can be top-10 passers at the next level, so this debate should (and will) rage on throughout the pre-draft process.
.@DrakeMaye2 ▶️ @bryson_nesbit pic.twitter.com/PjeNfZBd1K
— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) November 12, 2023
There were rumblings this week that Quinn Ewers will return to Texas for another season. Should he?
Brugler: I don’t like saying whether an underclassman should or shouldn’t leave school early, because it is such a personal decision with a number of factors involved. But I do believe another season of college football would absolutely benefit Quinn Ewers in the long run.
Ewers has played well this season — he has a 14-to-4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio, and his adjusted completion percentage (77.7 percent) ranks top 12 in the nation. However, he has been inconsistent throwing deep, and it feels like there is more for him to show. PFF has a metric called “Big-Time Throws,” which measures passes with perfect ball location and timing down the field in tight windows. Ewers has just eight such throws on the season, tied for 96th in the country. (For context, Maye leads all QBs with 30.)
There will be a lot of factors in Ewers’ decision, including that he likely will lose his top five targets to the NFL Draft (Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Jordan Whittington, Jonathon Brooks). Ultimately, it will come down to NFL feedback. If teams give him first-round feedback, I think there is a high chance he declares. If it’s more in the second-to-third-round range, then the decision will be tougher.
Baumgardner: I’m with Dane on this one, and it’s been a practice of mine forever — I’ll never judge a kid for a stay-or-go decision. We spend all year studying these kids and know more about them than most … but we definitely do not know everything.
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That said, we can give an objective evaluation. I think Ewers is ready, but the data is really light, and a case could be made for improving his spot in a thinner 2025 class. When he’s healthy and dialed in, no one in this class spins a prettier ball from the pocket than Ewers — his arm talent is first-round stuff. His consistency, however, is not.
The unique part here is that Ewers may need a fallback plan aside from Texas if he comes back. Arch Manning isn’t getting any younger. Neither is Maalik Murphy. If the Longhorns lose all that skill to the draft, would it behoove Ewers to come back and fight for his gig or pick a better — perhaps more favorable — spot?
Lee: We’re unanimous here, in sentiment and analysis. Far be it from me or anyone else to judge someone’s decision, but I don’t think Ewers is as well-positioned to be an NFL QB now as he could be by next winter.
His accuracy has improved, and I think he’s done a much better job of avoiding needlessly risky throws. Last year’s Oklahoma State game stands out as the worst of his tape. He’s also more comfortable working through progressions. However, we have to acknowledge that the deep accuracy isn’t where it should be, and that a QB surrounded by as much NFL talent as Ewers has should be lighting up the scoreboard much more often than we’re seeing. Texas has had issues with closing out games, and I think that Ewers’ inability to improvise or push the ball downfield has a lot to do with it.
The issue here is timing and opportunity. Texas can still backdoor its way into the CFP, but it’s about to hit the SEC in 2024 — just as all of that receiving talent is slated to head out of the door. I don’t know if that’s conducive to helping your draft stock.
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Dane introduced us to Tyson Bagent around this time last year. Any sleepers from Division II or III schools we should be watching?
Brugler: At the risk of being called a homer, Mount Union recently finished an undefeated regular season (once again) and is one of the favorites to steamroll through the Division III bracket. A part of their success has been wide receiver Wayne Ruby, who put his name on the NFL map last season with 105 catches for 1,785 yards and 30 touchdown grabs. He hasn’t been quite that productive in 2023 (53 receptions for 828 yards and 13 touchdowns), but he has the talent to land in an NFL camp and possibly earn draftable consideration with a strong pre-draft process.
Virginia State narrowly missed the Division II playoffs, but cornerback Willie Drew is a prospect fans need to know. A James Madison transfer, he has average size (5-foot-11, 181 pounds, 31 1/2-inch arms) and speed (4.49 40-yard dash) but plays sticky coverage with his transition skills and instincts.
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Baumgardner: The Senior Bowl announced earlier this week that Drew has accepted an invite, and I agree with Dane that he’s really interesting. He’s physical, plays the ball well in the air and will run people over — despite being pretty light. NFL teams will love his drive.
Also, Dane, when your school has won (give or take) 3,000 national titles like Mount Union has, you’re allowed to be a homer.
Give us a prospect or two who could use a showcase performance this weekend.
Brugler: Friday night, Colorado goes to Pullman to face Washington State, in a battle of reeling programs with quarterbacks who will have decisions to make after the season.
Washington State started 4-0 and quarterback Cameron Ward had a 74.6-percent completion rate, 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions over that span. But the Cougars have gone 0-6 over the last two months, and Ward has been very inconsistent (eight fumbles and five interceptions). Colorado ranks 117th in the country in scoring defense (33.9 points per game), so this could be a “get back on track” game for Ward.
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On the other side, Colorado has had a similar slide with only one win — a narrow victory against Arizona State — in its last seven games. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders hasn’t been the reason for those losses, but he also hasn’t been as impactful as he was during his brilliant start to the season. The Cougars have given up more touchdowns (38) than they have produced (35) and rank 101st in yards allowed.
The buzz is Ward and Sanders will return to school next season, but nothing is official yet.
Lee: I’ll show my Southern California bias here and pick DJ Uiagalelei. I’ve been watching this kid since he took the reins at St. John Bosco (Calif.) High School. I remember his Cam Newton-esque highlights on his way to Clemson, and his incredible display in that first college start against a playoff-level Notre Dame.
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He ended up falling short of expectations as a five-star prospect — and I think his tenure at Clemson unfortunately will be attached to the narrative of that program’s slide out of championship contention. He’s been a fine starter all year at Oregon State, though, and he’ll have no better opportunity to leap out of relative obscurity than by upsetting Washington, which has flirted with losses several times in the last month.
YOU’VE GOTTA BE KIDDING ME 🤯@DJUiagalelei x @JermaineTerryII pic.twitter.com/pD9SJ45hnp
— Oregon State Football (@BeaverFootball) November 11, 2023
Baumgardner: I’ll throw a few non-QBs out there. Minnesota senior Tyler Nubin is currently PFF’s top-graded coverage safety. He has 12 career picks, ranked No. 34 on Dane’s recent board, and on Saturday he’ll have just his second career shot against Ohio State. Nubin’s a safety, so he won’t be in a lot a one-on-one situations, but we all know about the weapons the Buckeyes offense can throw at people. This could be a nice showcase game for Nubin, even if Minnesota doesn’t keep up.
Two talented offensive linemen with good opportunities: Arizona tackle Jordan Morgan versus an always-intense Utah defense, and Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga against Washington’s front. Fuaga has had truly dominant stretches this season, so if that holds up against a talented Huskies front, plenty more people should start to take notice.
(Photo of Caleb Williams: Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport / Getty Images
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